Mortgage Market Forecast for 2026: What to Expect in the Czech Republic

12/01/2026

The year 2026 is shaping up to be one of the most important – and potentially record-breaking – years for the Czech mortgage market in over a decade. After a period marked by rapid interest-rate increases, market stagnation, and subsequent gradual recovery, the market is entering a new phase defined by renewed demand, large-scale refixations, and an expected return of regulatory limits.

Based on current market data, economic trends, and signals from the Czech National Bank (ČNB), a relatively clear outlook for 2026 can already be outlined.


Mortgage Volumes and Market Activity

In 2026, the Czech mortgage market is expected to reach the following levels:

  • Average mortgage size: CZK 4.2–4.4 million

  • Number of new mortgages: approximately 90,000–100,000+ loans

  • Total annual volume: CZK 380–440+ billion

These figures indicate that 2026 could become a record year in terms of total mortgage volume, rivaling or even exceeding the strongest years in the market's history.

The key drivers behind this growth include higher property prices, the release of postponed demand from previous years, and a significant wave of mortgage refixations.


Refixations: A Major Market Driver

One of the most important factors in 2026 will be the volume of mortgages reaching the end of their fixed-rate periods.

  • Approximately CZK 460 billion in mortgages will reach refixation in 2026

  • Refinancing is expected to account for 16–20% of total mortgage production

Many borrowers who fixed their interest rates during the historically low-rate environment will face substantially higher rates upon refixation. As a result, refinancing strategies, timing, and lender negotiations will play a crucial role in managing long-term housing costs.


Regulatory Outlook: Return of DSTI and DTI Limits

Regulation will once again become a central theme in 2026.

  • The Czech National Bank is expected to review DSTI and DTI limits in May and December 2026

  • A full reintroduction of DSTI and DTI limits for all mortgage loans is expected

This would mean stricter affordability assessments across the board. Households with higher debt burdens or limited financial reserves may find access to mortgage financing more challenging, even with solid income levels.


Interest Rates: Moderate Increase Likely

Despite optimism in parts of the market, interest rates are not expected to decline further in 2026.

  • Mortgage interest rates are expected to rise slightly,

  • most likely by 0.10–0.20 percentage points,

  • with an estimated average mortgage rate of 4.5–4.6% for 2026.

While this increase is modest, in combination with high loan amounts and refixations it will have a noticeable impact on monthly repayments.


What This Means for Borrowers

The year 2026 will not be a "cheap" year for mortgages, but it will be a highly active and decisive one. Borrowers planning:

  • a property purchase,

  • a refinancing, or

  • an upcoming rate refixation

should start planning well in advance. The difference between a well-timed, well-structured mortgage and a poorly planned one can easily amount to hundreds of thousands of Czech crowns over the life of the loan.


Conclusion: 2026 as a Stress Test for Borrowers and the Market

From today's perspective, 2026 is likely to be:

  • a potentially record-breaking year in mortgage volumes,

  • a year of tighter regulation,

  • a period of slightly higher interest rates,

  • and a year full of opportunity for well-prepared borrowers.

In mortgage financing, the old rule will apply once again: the interest rate alone is not enough – strategy matters.

Request a Private Consultation
Share